(Year 234, Fall) As soon as the 4 political parties released their candidates, the predictions started to flood the media and online communities. Mazaloom's election routine, with its later adjustments, makes it possible to see some possible patterns. But can we predict the result? Not at all!
Sabrina Grossing is better qualified than most predictors. She is now retired, but previously she co-hosted many TV-reports covering our 5 years elections.
- I find this election more exciting than ever. And, I was quite surprised checking the candidates!
The election has two purposes. Filling the positions as district Mayors and region Councilors. Each district elects a Mayor, and all Mayors within a region run for the region's Councilor post. Winning regions is any party's main goal, because they won't get any of People Chamber's 21 seats unless they get minimum one of the regional Councilors. Each Councilor comes with a set number of seats, based on population numbers. Winning the most seats and getting the Prime Minister is of course the dream, but not realistic for the smaller parties as they have fewer candidates.
- The interesting detail is that regions offer anything from 1 to 5 seats. We can't predict all results, but we can see who are the stronger parties in the bigger regions. And, I also discovered a disadvantage for MIDDLE party...
The regions
Region Windenburg offers 2 seats, and all 4 parties will fight over it. From their Windenburg candidates, only Henrik Kraft (RIGHT) has experience from People Chamber. It is interesting to see that son of retired LEFT politician Jusue Rosewood is now representing MIDDLE party, running for Windenburg Mayor. Only RIGHT and LEFT have candidates for the Nordhaven Mayor, representing the rivaling families Hyggelotth and Hyde.
Prediction Windenburg Councilor: Henrik Kraft (RIGHT)
Region Rossie has 2 districts, and a good selection of candidates, but is a less important region politically. There are two strong candidates for the Britechester Mayor, Jurton Summerton (LEFT) and Elvira Echos (MIDDLE) both have experience from People Chamber. In Henford-on-Bagley, only Lord Bennet Ross (RIGHT) has chamber experience, but Antoinette Morck (MIDDLE) has a good position in public.
Prediction Rossie Councilor: It's too hard predicting who will win the Rossie Councilor, all parties except the new WORLD party are in with a good chance. This region offers only 1 seat, though, not enough for any party's tougher battle. If I need to pick one, I'd guess Lord Bennet Ross (RIGHT).
After the addition of Del Sol Valley, region Tredony is well worth the job with its 3 seats. Only RIGHT and WORLD have candidates for Del Sol Valley Mayor, and it turns out that Aronica Pepperstone (LEFT) is the only candidate for Tredony Mayor. Tartosa has 3 candidates (all but RIGHT), but no clear fave.
Prediction Tredony Councilor: It's hard to predict, but I'd say Emma R. Golden (RIGHT) might win 3 seats for her party.
Region Crafthole offers only 1 seat, but all parties are surprisingly well represented. Current Copperdale Mayor, Roger Lockerbud (RIGHT), should be able to get re-elected.
Prediction Crafthole Councilor: My guess is Roger Lockerbud (RIGT) getting this seat, but the Ravenwood Mayor might surprise.
Region San Myshuno is the only region offering 5 seats. I'd expect more parties working harder to have candidates in this region, but they are not strongh enough in the city. They all have minimum 1 candidate though - some rather weak. We find LEFT party's 1st candidate, Anaya Jang running for Myshuno Mayor, and with her experience from several periods as Minister, she is definitely the best qualified candidate in San Myshuno. But, there are fresh names, and we don't know their skills - can they surprise? Cato Wugger (RIGHT) has been on the local political stage for a couple decades, and he is running for Prome (Magnolia Promenade) and is the party's 5th candidate. The 3rd district is Meadows, where Nivert Hump (RIGHT) seems to get an easy win.
Prediction San Myshuno Councilor: Anaya Jang will grab those 5 seats for the LEFT party.
Region Aarbyville offers 2 seats. All parties have candidates for the San Sequoia Mayor, and Laurent Pepperstone (LEFT) should win this easily. He is previous Prime Minister, and this year he is LEFT party's 2nd candidate. Gibbi Point Mayor is harder to predict, as none of the 2 candidates are experienced.
Prediction Aarbyville Councilor: Laurent Pepperstone (LEFT) will win those 2 seats.
Region Advorton has grown thanks to the recent regional reform, now offering 3 seats. All 4 districts have candidates, but Chestnut Ridge only 2, and StrangerVille just 1. The new WORLD party's 1st candidate should win his home district Chestnut Ridge's Mayor, and Paolo R. Grossing (LEFT) wins StrangerVille Mayor. I think Razira Jupiter (RIGHT) might take Oasis Springs Mayor, but in Ciudad Enamorada anything can happen - only WORLD party has no candidate there, which I'm sure they now regret, especially because all the three candidates are quite inexperienced.
Prediction Advorton Councilor: Razira Jupiter (RIGHT) might actually grab those 3 seats.
Finally, Region Gloom offers 3 seats. Who will grab them? Most districts have 3 candidates, but only RIGHT and MIDDLE have candidates in all 4 districts. Charlotta Crumpleton (RIGHT) should win the Gloomville Mayor, and her brother, Charloman C. Dougham (RIGHT) should get the Newcrest Mayor. He is very experienced. And here we get to the disadvantage for MIDDLE party: their 1st candidate is running in the same region as RIGHT party's 1st candidate Dougham, and it means that Starks will have no chance to win her home region. It is the only region with 2 top candidates. Because they are both party leaders, this seems like good old bad planning...
Prediction Gloom Councilor: Charloman Dougham (RIGHT) should grab the 3 seats of region Gloom.
All in all, this seems to be a strong election for the RIGHT party! My prediction sums up to 13 seats won by RIGHT and 7 by LEFT. It would mean a boost for RIGHT, who can then rule alone, while LEFT gets no change from their previous period. The other big surprise would be that MIDDLE and WORLD gets no seats at all. At least one of them should win at least one region - it would make the political landscape slightly more interesting to more residents, but well, the parties won't need seats in order to have a public voice. Parties that win no seat will still have access to Council House where Peiople Chamber operates, but only as gallery observers, besides influencing debates in the corridors.
Here are all parties' top 5 candidates:
RIGHT
1. Charloman Au. C. Dougham (61), Newcrest
2. Emma R. Golden (64), Del Sol Valley
3. Bennet Ross (49), Henford-on-Bagley
4. Henrik Kraft (60), Windenburg
5. Cato Wugger (59), Prome
LEFT
1. Anaya Jang (68), Myshuno
2. Laurent Pepperstone (63), San Sequoia
3. Marvin R. Hyggeloth (67), Nordhaven
4. Bill Loffertop (67), Copperdale
5. Jurton Summerton (47), Britechester
MIDDLE
1. Rebekah Starks (47), Evergreen Harbor2. Elvira E. Honeydew (52), Britechester
3. Vincent de Croismare (47), San Sequoia
4. Launi Bitten (57), Moonwood/Copperdale
5. Linda Orwing (58), Ciudad Enamorada
1. Roger Mistfield (69), Chestnut Ridge
2. Abhrin Wusha (63), Del Sol Valley
3. Severina Ember (43), Glimmerbrook/Ravenwood
4. Hertog Lobster (52), Windenburg
5. Fitz Effenmont (58), San Sequoia
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